The survey result reflects the impact of 16 years of war on the lives of people. Some analysts believe that the island faces increasingly difficult problems which are becoming unmanageable in the light of continuing war and its dreadful consequences.
Sri Lanka’s Central Bank says defence spending is increasing and the uncertain economic situation has discouraged domestic and foreign investment. The Bank has called for immediate steps to control the island’s growing budget deficit which it says is largely due to the cost of the conflict and lower tax collection. The government planned to keep the deficit down to 6.5% against 7.9% in 1997. But the deficit has risen to 9.2% of GDP. Defence expenditure stood at 5.6% of GDP in 1998, an increase from 5.4% in the previous year.
Many believe that the high crime rate is linked to the war. In an interview with Reuters in early May, the Deputy Inspector General of Police HMGM Kotagadeniya said ‘crime is a direct fallout of the war in the north-east’. Crimes, including contract killings, are said to be committed by many among 12,000 army deserters still at large. Their weapons are available on the black market.
A Navy deserter and a reserve Police Sub-Inspector were among the 17 suspects arrested in connection with the abduction of business firm Aitken Spence Director GC Wickremasinghe in March for a ransom of Rs 20 million. Mr Kotagadeniya says that the direct involvement of police in crime may now have to be examined.
Rapes increased to 1,066 in 1998 from 844 in 1997, while killings rose to 1,993 from 1,576. The government has resumed executions after 23 years. Amnesty International views the decision as a retrograde step which would ‘seriously undermine international confidence in the government’s commitment to human rights and reform’.
Observers say that welfare has suffered at the expense of the war and children are particularly vulnerable. British NGO Save the Children estimates that 900,000 children in the north-east are affected by the war. There are continuing allegations that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) recruit children despite their assurances to the United Nations. According to the International Labour Organisation (ILO), there are 500,000 child labourers in the island and 10,000 of them are street children.
Sri Lanka has the highest suicide rate in the world, around 7,000 each year. There is a thriving war economy. Writing about Sri Lanka in the Newsweek magazine, journalist Tony Clifton says that ‘nowhere has war embedded itself more malignantly into the normal workings of a nation’. He estimates 50,000 have died so far, an additional 30,000 have disappeared and more than one million have lost their homes.
Over 800,000 people depend on government assistance, 600,000 of whom are internally displaced. As fighting continues, the number of the displaced in the north-east increases and many refugees have been displaced several times. Around half a million Sri Lankans are estimated to have left the country as a result of the war. The exodus continues. The European Union is displeased over the delay in reconstruction in Jaffna.
Despite the mounting problems, there are no signs from the government or the LTTE that the peace process will resume. A delegation of the National Peace Alliance (NPA) visited the Vanni on 24 May. An NPA delegation two months earlier met LTTE leaders in the Vanni and after returning to Colombo, held discussions with President Chandrika Kumaratunge. NPA convenor and University Professor Tissa Vitharana says that the Tiger leaders promised cooperation in achieving peace and the President’s response was positive.
But, by the time the NPA delegation made its second visit, war had intervened. The Sri Lankan Army had captured the Madhu area in Mannar District, in Operation Rana Gosha (Battle Cry). The Tigers ignored the message from the delegation sent through Mannar Bishop Rayappu Joseph, requesting a meeting. In early May, Bishop Joseph had urged the LTTE to work towards an acceptable solution to all parties.
The ruling PA and the main opposition United National Party (UNP) were preoccupied with internal dissent. Reports say that UNP leader Ranil Wickremasinghe faces challenge from within and President Chandrika Kumaratunge has received a letter from Fisheries minister Mahinda Rajapakse criticising the PA’s lack of commitment to carry out election pledges.
President Chandrika says that the government will end the war and implement political proposals before national elections. How these can be achieved within the next year is unclear. The delay in peace is allowing extremism to rear its ugly head. The hardline organisation, Sinhala Weeravidhana has begun a new campaign of intimidation against the minorities in southern areas which may be difficult to control.