Elections for 17 local bodies including the Jaffna municipal council will be held on 29 January. Tamil parties PLOTE, TELO, EPRLF, EPDP and a breakaway group have announced 1,171 candidates for 234 seats in the councils. The TULF and other Tamil parties agree that the Jaffna situation is not conducive for democratic elections but say they decided to contest after failing to persuade the government to consider postponement.
Government’s main aim in holding the elections appears to be to convince the international community that normalcy has been restored and Jaffna is ready for major reconstruction. A successful election in Jaffna may marginalise not only the LTTE, but also southern hardliners opposing government devolution proposals. The election could also be a litmus test of the Tamil people’s mood in the run-up to the proposed June referendum on the devolution plans.
The government hopes that concentration of LTTE forces in the peninsula to disrupt the elections will reduce Tiger strength in the Vanni enabling the Army to move swiftly in Operation Jayasikurui and open a landroute to Jaffna from Vavuniya, analysts say.
Following concerns raised, the Elections Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake says the Tamil parties will be disarmed before the elections. There is fear over interference from the Army which controls life in Jaffna. In December, the Commission into the March 1994 Vavuniya and Eastern Province local elections recommended removal of civic rights of 67 police officers for interference in the election.
In Jaffna, electoral registers have not been updated for 15 years. Over 300,000 Jaffna residents are in the Vanni and another 30,000 Jaffna Muslims driven out by the LTTE in 1990 live in southern areas. Although 81,500 people have returned from the Vanni, 51,300 people left the peninsula since May 1996 and thousands of Jaffna voters reside in southern parts without easy access to the peninsula. According to the government 4,900 are still in refugee camps and 51,800 live with friends or relatives. Observers say the Jaffna election is about strategy rather than democracy.