In a message marking Maveerar Varam (Great Heroes Week), LTTE’s annual commemoration of its martyred cadre, beginning on 21 November, the Tiger chief accused the Sri Lankan leadership of lacking political will and sincerity and demanded third party mediation to resolve the island’s conflict. Negotiations cannot be free and fair, he asserts, if the government uses military aggression and economic blockade of the Tamil-dominated north-east Sri Lanka as political pressures.
Mr Prabhakaran says that the LTTE is not imposing any conditions for peace negotiations, but his demand for ‘initial talks to discuss removal of pressures’ - meaning a ceasefire and lifting of the economic blockade - is clearly a pre-condition. The insistence on third party mediation is another condition.
Some observers view the call for peace talks as a positive step and point out that unlike previous years, when devastating attacks were launched on military or civilian targets during Heroes Week, this year the Air Tigers merely displayed their newly acquired aircraft at Mulliyavalai in Mullaitivu District.
Tamil and Muslim parties urged the government to seize the Tiger offer while the main opposition United National Party (UNP) declared that ‘all available options should be utilised in finding a solution’. But the UNP is reluctant to join government attempts to devolve power to regions by constitutional reform or support the Sri Lankan business community’s recent peace initiative.
The government maintains that the Tigers must lay down arms and agree on a specific time frame to complete negotiations. In recent months, President Chandrika Kumaratunge has insisted that the LTTE should publicly declare that it has abandoned the struggle for Tamil Eelam or separate state. The government has rejected third party mediation, but President Chandrika welcomes facilitation of peace talks by any foreign nation. There is concern that the gulf between the parties is unbridgeable while pre-conditions for talks remain.
Critics say that the display of air power by the LTTE exposes the hollowness of its peace offer and will lead to further militarisation. The government may now consider acquiring surface-to-air missiles. The LTTE, which has been banned by the US, may not have launched any major attack during Heroes Week to avoid further international strictures. Many Sri Lankan politicians are emphatic that the Tigers cannot be trusted after breaking the ceasefire during peace negotiations with the People’s Alliance government in April 1995.
The visit of British Foreign Office minister Derek Fatchett to Sri Lanka, in early November, led to speculations of renewed UK involvement in peace. Mr Fatchett told NGOs in London that the bipartisan agreement initiated by his predecessor Liam Fox was difficult to build on, given the electoral ambitions of the Sri Lankan political parties. Britain is not seeking to impose any solution but will be ready to take part when the climate is right, Mr Fatchett says.
Mr Prabhakaran, in his Heroes Week message, accuses foreign nations of exacerbating the suffering of civilians by providing military assistance to Sri Lanka. Observers say that current British government policy has cast doubts over its role as a mediator. Britain continues to supply arms to Sri Lanka (see page 3). The British Home Office, in its Sri Lanka assessment report has largely excluded the atrocities committed by the security forces against Tamil civilians.
The Tamil parties are dismayed over the President’s response to the plight of Tamil civilians in the north-east, particularly her acceptance of the lower refugee figures submitted by the Army than the Government Agents of the Vanni region. The parties are also angry over the killing of 15 civilians by the Airforce in the Vanni during Heroes Week. The Tamil United Liberation Front voted against the government’s budget for 1999 protesting over food cuts to refugees and the allocation of massive funds for the war.
Tabling the budget in Parliament on 6 November, Deputy Finance minister GL Peiris said that Sri Lanka had achieved a growth rate of 6.4% in the past year with narrowing of the fiscal deficit. The total public debt, according to Mr Peiris, has fallen, inflation and interest rates have declined and national savings increased with foreign reserves at a healthy level.
Economists say a fundamental weakness arises from commitment to expenditure, particularly defence spending. The 1999 defence allocation of Rs 47 billion ($700 million) is expected rise during the year. The average growth rate for 1995-98 is 5.2%, well below the target of 8%, lack of investment being the main reason. Investment declined from 27% of the GDP in 1994 to 24.4% in 1997. Economists observe that an investment ratio of 40% of GDP is needed to sustain a growth rate of 8%. SP Tao, the Chairman of Overseas Realty (Ceylon) Ltd which owns Colombo’s World Trade Centre says that the security situation in the island must improve before it can attract more investment.