When Mr Hakeem joined the government in October 2000, he issued a 100-day ultimatum for the establishment of four independent commissions on police, judiciary, public administration and elections. Since then he has made other demands, including the creation of a new Muslim-dominated district in the Kalmunai area of Eastern Province. Mr Hakeem had also made allegations of vote rigging at the general elections in October 2000 and claimed that he regretted to be part of a government that had no moral right to govern.
President Chandrika asserts that dismissal of Mr Hakeem was for violation of collective Cabinet responsibility and was in no way against the Muslim community. But Muslim observers say that the community, which remains bitter that no action has been taken against Rural Industrial Development minister Maheepala Herath over the Mawanella violence, feels let down. The restoration of diplomatic ties between Sri Lanka and Israel on 15 May, may also be a cause for concern for the Muslims.
Mr Hakeem announced that he was leaving the government. In a surprise move, his rival and National Unity Alliance (NUA) leader Ferial Ashraff made public that she was resigning her position as Eastern Development minister. NUA was established by former SLMC leader MHM Ashraff as a national party, in order to avert accusations of parochialism. At the general elections in October 2000, seven SLMC members entered Parliament by contesting on the PA ticket. Three others were NUA candidates and another became an MP on the National List.
Mr Hakeem joined the ranks of the opposition in Parliament on 21 June with the six SLMC members, but said that they would function as an independent group. Mrs Ashraff and the three NUA MPs remain with the government. The relationship between the SLMC and NUA is said to be determined by an agreement, but as to whether Mr Hakeem or Mrs Ashraff is the real leader of NUA may have to be decided by the courts.
The PA government lost its narrow majority in Parliament when the SLMC left. The government will not be able to obtain parliamentary approval for legislation and for continuing the state of Emergency. In late June, the UNP and the People’s Liberation Front (JVP) decided to vote against the extension of Emergency. The government now has 109 seats in Parliament against the combined opposition’s 116.
The government’s problems deepened when 97 MPs belonging to the UNP and Tamil parties, TULF, TELO and ACTC, tabled a no-confidence motion in Parliament on 22 June. These parties were hopeful of receiving support from the JVP, which has ten MPs. But the JVP announced after a Central Committee meeting on 24 June, that a decision would be taken only after the parliamentary debate on the issue.
Reports say opinion is divided in the Central Committee. The JVP has indicated that its decision would depend on the government’s position on its demand for five independent commissions, including one for the media. However, observers believe that in the light of severe criticism levelled by the JVP against the government on handling of the economy and the north-east war, it is doubtful that any support would be forthcoming.
Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF) leader V Anandasangari says that his party has "verbal assurance" of concessions when UNP gains power. The UNP is said to have promised the lifting of the economic blockade of the north-east and a proper role for Norwegian facilitation in the peace process. Tamil observers have criticized the TULF, which in the past has been misled by verbal assurances of major political parties.
The government is plagued by divisions within. Observers believe that several government MPs, including some ministers, may support the no-confidence motion. On 13 June, the General Secretary of the PA coalition’s main constituent, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, SB Dissanayake, who is also Rural Development minister, urged the formation of a national government, which will include members of the opposition. Such a government would have no need to depend on the support of the minority parties. Mr Dissanayake, who was regarded as a close counsellor to President Kumaratunge, is increasingly strident in his criticism and has become an irritant to the President.
Although the UNP called the attempt to form a national government, a trick to avoid the no-confidence motion, reports say negotiations between the PA and UNP are underway. There is unlikely to be any agreement, as it is alleged that the UNP had masterminded the fracture in the government. Sri Lanka seems to be heading for political turmoil which may in turn exacerbate the ethnic conflict.