The dissolution of Parliament was widely expected after the President took control of Defence, Interior and Media ministries in November last year, within four days of the publication of proposals for an interim administration in the north-east by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). She also took control of the state radio, television and newspapers. Her action in February followed a pact between PA constituent, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the Marxist People’s Liberation Front (JVP). The agreement of 20 January, led to the formation of the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA).
There is grave concern that the alliance may spell doom for peace in the island. The agreement criticized the peace initiatives of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe, as a process threatening the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Sri Lanka. The pact says that both the SLFP and the JVP agree to enter into dialogue with the LTTE and all relevant groups and communities. The LTTE have continued to insist that negotiations should be held only with them and described the UPFA as a threat to peace.
The JVP have also expressed opposition to Norway, which has played a mediatory role since January 2000. After the ceasefire agreement between the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE in February 2002, the Norwegians have also headed the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM), tasked with monitoring ceasefire violations. The tussle for power between the President and Prime Minister resulted in Norway suspending participation in peace efforts in November last year until clarity is established about political authority to ensure continuation of the ceasefire and resumption of peace talks. The UPFA said that if it formed the government in the April elections, the role of Norway would be reviewed. The LTTE, however, is unlikely to change its position that Norway should continue its role without change.
Before dissolution of Parliament, Prime Minister Wickremasinghe relinquished responsibility regarding the ceasefire and announced in early February that the President should take charge of the peace process. He reiterated that he could not take the peace process forward unless the Defence Ministry and other relevant institutions were placed under his full control.
As concern over the fate of the peace process grew, President Chandrika told Reuters in late March that she is committed to peace talks with the LTTE if the UPFA won the elections. In an interview to the Colombo Tamil newspaper Virakesari on 20 March, she suggested that initial talks could explore the peace proposals submitted by the PA government in 1997 and 2000, but indicated that she was not averse to discussing the LTTE proposals of October 2003. The Tiger proposals envisage an Interim Self-Governing Authority (ISGA) for the north-east region with extensive powers over land, law and order, administration, finance and taxation.
The LTTE has always urged the people of the north-east to boycott local or national elections on ground that participation in elections under a unitary constitution would undermine the Tamil claim for self-determination. In a significant development, the LTTE announced on 17 February that it would support the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), a coalition of four Tamil parties, at the general elections. The LTTE ensured that several of their supporters were included in the election candidates list of the TNA.
Unity among the Tamil groups has been welcomed, but many Tamils fear that the aim of the LTTE is to strengthen control over other parties and consolidate its grip on the population of the north-east. They also point out that the MPs of the TNA will have no independence in Parliament as they would be expected to toe the LTTE line.
Events in the east in early March indicated cracks in the LTTE. Eastern commander V Muraleetharan or Col. Karuna accused the northern LTTE leadership of discrimination and ignoring the east in development programmes. Col. Karuna controls thousands of cadre and is in a position to split the LTTE and cast doubts over legitimacy of the Tamil demand for the permanent merger of the Northern and Eastern provinces and recognition of a Tamil homeland. The LTTE sacked Col. Karuna on 6 March accusing him of immoral conduct and fraudulent financial transactions.
The division in the LTTE has introduced further complications in the peace process. Observers say that elements within the the UPFA and the Army may urge the President to strengthen Col. Karuna, as a weapon to deal with the LTTE in the future. The confidence brought about by the peace talks has been eroded by subsequent events and the future of Sri Lanka remains uncertain as it was before the ceasefire agreement.